Downscaling of Regional Air Quality Model Using Gaussian Plume Model and Random Forest Regression

Marcin Kawka, Joanna Strużewska, Jacek W. Kamiński

High 𝑃𝑀10 concentrations are still a significant problem in many parts of the world. In many countries, including Poland, 50 μg/m3 is the permissible threshold for a daily average 𝑃𝑀10 concentration. The number of people affected by this threshold’s exceedance is challenging to estimate and requires high-resolution concentration maps. This paper presents an application of random forests for downscaling regional model air quality results. As policymakers and other end users are eager to receive detailed-resolution 𝑃𝑀10 concentration maps, we propose a technique that utilizes the results of a regional CTM (GEM-AQ, with 2.5 km resolution) and a local Gaussian plume model. As a result, we receive a detailed, 250 m resolution 𝑃𝑀10 distribution, which represents the complex emission pattern in a foothill area in southern Poland. The random forest results are highly consistent with the GEM-AQ and observed concentrations. We also discuss different strategies of training random forest on data using additional features and selecting target variables.

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