Project title: FORCE – FORecasting hydrological response, Carbon balance and Emissions from different types of mires in arctic-to-temperate zone transect in abrupt climatic change
Project implementation units:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego (Lider)
Instytut Geofizyki Polskiej Akademii Nauk
NINA: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
NTNU: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Dr inż. Grzegorz Sinicyn (kierownik projektu w PW)
Dr inż. Maria Grodzka-Łukaszewska
Dr inż. Łukasz Kaczmarek
Dr inż. Paweł Gilewski
Mgr inż. Bartosz Bednarz
Project period: 01.01.2021 – 30.04.2023
The main goal of the project is to verify the hypothesis of a potential change in the carbon balance and cycle in nature. It is predicted that this balance may change as a result of advancing climate change and rising air temperature, which will result in an increasing release of carbon dioxide, previously stored in peatlands, into the atmosphere. The research area will be 7 peat bogs (5 in Norway, 2 in Poland) located at different longitudes. These peatlands, due to their different geographical location, are located in different climatic conditions, and thus – their potential response to changes in terms of releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will be different.
In order to verify this hypothesis we formulated set of research tasks arranged in the form of workpackages (WPs), based on general context analysis (WP1), groundwater flow modelling (WP3), Monte-Carlo parameter estimation and statistical techniques of risk assessment (WP4), isotope analyses of groundwater, surface water and vegetation and emission quantification (WP5) to be integrated in a Bayesian belief approach (WP6). All of the research activities remain based on the results of original data collected in a number of scheduled field research campaigns (WP2).
The team of the Warsaw University of Technology will carry out one of the tasks involving the creation, calibration and interpretation of groundwater flow models for all the considered peatlands. These models will also be statistically tested for the uncertainty of the input data and the impact of this uncertainty on the predicted change in the water balance and changes in carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere.