Maciej Witek, Ferdinand Uilhoorn
This paper investigates the influence of failure of transmission network key elements on security of natural gas delivery. The proposed framework combines the probabilistic structure integrity study and the hydraulic analysis. A factor called a volumetric loss was introduced to quantify the effect of network failure. Based on the magnetic flux leakage diagnostics, the rupture probability of steel tube plastic collapse was estimated using a random variable method and Monte Carlo solution. In-line inspections should monitor only the rate of tube wall corrosion, whereas the proposed methodology enables the pipeline operator to evaluate the system ability to deliver gas at the customer nodes. For the hydraulic analysis, an unsteady gas flow model was applied using conservation principles of mass, momentum, and energy. The flow model was tuned to real pressure and temperature data using a multi-objective optimization approach. To demonstrate the practical value of the methodology, the time and amount of gas shortage, line pack, and a volumetric loss were computed for a real tree-topological pipeline network. Simulations demonstrated that the highest volumetric loss is experienced when both compressor stations are shut down. The aim of the proposed algorithm is identification of critical nodes as well as evaluation of measures for improving the gas supply reliability to the customers.